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Explainer: What’s at stake in the 2022 U.S. congressional elections

Control of the U.S. Congress is at stake in this November’s midterm elections, along with Joe Biden’s remaining policy agenda.

Republicans stand a strong chance of taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, while Democrats have better odds of retaining a majority in the Senate. A Republican House would be enough to derail most legislation Biden and his fellow Democrats want to enact, as well as likely spurring a wave of new congressional probes of the administration.

HISTORICAL HEADWINDS

The party in power typically loses House seats during the first term of a new president.

Democratic President Barack Obama’s party lost a devastating 63 seats in the 2010 election during his first term. In 2018, two years into Donald Trump’s presidency, the Republican Party gave up 41 House seats. In both cases, control of the chamber flipped.

This year, Republicans need only to gain five seats to assume the majority in the 435-member chamber.

Their prospects of winning those seats have been enhanced by the practice of gerrymandering, the once-in-a-decade drawing of congressional districts by state legislatures. Republicans control the vast majority of U.S. statehouses and have used that power to fashion districts that favor their own candidates and ensure fewer competitive races.

Democrats had hoped their own aggressive map in New York would offset Republican gains in states such as Texas and Florida. But a recent court ruling invalidated the New York congressional map, strengthening the Republican gerrymandering advantage.

SOME DEMOCRATS HEAD FOR THE DOOR

House Democrats fearing a Republican takeover have sprinted for the exits. So far, 30 House Democrats have announced they are retiring or seeking other office, the most for the party since 1992.

Republicans need to gain only one seat to take control of the U.S. Senate, which is currently divided 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote.

But battle-tested Democratic incumbents in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada may help the party hold onto those seats, while Republicans could surrender seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states that voted for Biden over Trump in the 2020 election.

A so-called Republican wave could result in all those seats going that party’s way, along perhaps with New Hampshire, which would give it a 54-49 majority.

BIDEN UNDERWATER

While Biden is not on the November ballot, midterms frequently serve as a referendum on the president. Unfortunately for Democrats, Biden at the moment is struggling.

More than half of the country – 53% – disapproves of his performance, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 25-26. Sixty-one percent of those surveyed said the country is headed in the wrong direction, including 40% of Democrats and 54% of voters who call themselves independent.

Other opinion polls, such as Gallup, show similar levels of disapproval. In fact, Biden is more unpopular than Obama was in 2010 when Democrats were swamped in the House elections.

Democratic operatives fear Biden’s unpopularity may depress turnout among their voters, while motivating Republicans to come out with more enthusiasm.

Trump also is not on the ballot. But he is backing a slate of like-minded candidates with an eye toward remaining the defacto leader of his party and another possible White House bid in 2024.

START-AND-STOP ECONOMY

Democrats’ hopes that a swift economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic would boost their midterm prospects have not been realized.

Despite a sharp drop in unemployment, the economy remains plagued by rampant inflation, which has spiked the cost of household staples such as food and energy. Continued supply chain disruptions led the nation’s gross domestic product to decline slightly in the first quarter of 2022 – its worst performance in two years – although analysts say there is little chance of the country entering a recession.

In-fighting among Democratic lawmakers has frustrated attempts to deliver on Biden’s campaign promises. After passing a massive rescue package and a sweeping infrastructure bill last year, Congress remains bogged down on negotiations over further coronavirus aid as well as a potential package revolving around climate change, prescription drug reform and changes to the tax code.

FEW COMPETITIVE RACES

As a result of gerrymandering and increased polarization of the electorate, the number of congressional districts that can be called truly competitive has shrunk dramatically.

Fewer than 20 House races are viewed by election analysts as true tossups — and only 32 races can be considered competitive, according to an aggregate of leading election analysts.

That gives Democrats fewer opportunities to stem their losses by capturing seats elsewhere. And in several of those competitive races, retirements by Democrats have jeopardized the party’s chances of keeping the seats.

Election forecasters such as the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and the University of Virginia Center for Politics all view Republicans as favorites to win the House, based on the political environment and factors such as geography and demographics.

David Wasserman, an election analyst with the Cook Political Report, said the likely outcome for House Democrats is somewhere between “terrible” and “horrific” – with the latter being the loss of more than 30 seats.

(Reporting by James Oliphant and Jason Lange; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Daniel Wallis)

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Explainer: What’s at stake in the 2022 U.S. congressional elections is written by Wolf Daily for wolfdaily.com

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Nikki Haley Donors Flock to Biden Campaign

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In a stunning display of political opportunism and disloyalty, former supporters of Nikki Haley’s Republican primary campaign have shamelessly defected to Joe Biden’s camp as the presidential election looms. This egregious betrayal not only underscores the depth of moral bankruptcy within certain segments of the GOP but also highlights the duplicitous nature of individuals willing to sacrifice their conservative values for personal gain.

With Donald Trump securing the GOP nomination for November’s presidential election, the stage is set for a fiery rematch between the incumbent Biden and the formidable Trump. However, the Machiavellian maneuvers of former Haley donors reveal a troubling trend of self-serving treachery within the Republican Party.

Haley, once touted as a rising star within the conservative movement, suspended her primary campaign earlier this month following Super Tuesday. Yet, rather than rallying behind the Republican nominee, some of her erstwhile backers have shamelessly switched their allegiance to Biden, driven by a toxic combination of ego and ambition.

Media mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg, along with other prominent donors who had previously supported Haley, have now pledged their support to Biden, betraying not only their former candidate but also the core principles of conservatism. Their actions demonstrate a callous disregard for the values of limited government, individual liberty, and fiscal responsibility that define the Republican Party.

Rufus Gifford, Biden’s campaign finance chair, has openly admitted to actively courting Haley supporters to join the Democratic cause. This brazen attempt to poach conservative donors underscores the cynicism and opportunism that pervade Biden’s campaign, as he seeks to exploit divisions within the GOP for his own political gain.

While Biden may hypocritically extend an olive branch to Haley supporters, his true intentions are clear: to co-opt and neutralize any opposition to his radical agenda of socialist policies and big government intervention. Those who align themselves with Biden are not only betraying their former candidate but also betraying the conservative movement and the millions of Americans who stand for freedom and prosperity.

In contrast, President Trump has made it abundantly clear that there is no room for turncoats within the MAGA movement. His steadfast commitment to America-first policies and conservative principles has earned him the loyalty and support of millions of patriotic Americans who refuse to compromise their values for political expediency.

As the battle lines are drawn for the upcoming election, conservatives must remain vigilant against the insidious influence of traitors within their own ranks. Nikki Haley’s turncoats may seek to undermine the conservative movement, but they will ultimately be remembered as opportunists who sold their souls for a fleeting moment of political relevance.

In the words of President Trump, “We don’t want them, and will not accept them.” It is time for true conservatives to stand united behind the only candidate capable of defending our values and leading our nation forward: Donald J. Trump. Anything less would be a betrayal of everything we hold dear as Americans.

Do you support Haley donors moving over to the Biden campaign?

 

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POLL: Do you support Haley donors moving over to the Biden campaign?

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Democrats Try to Block “Sarah’s Law” From Protecting Americans

Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa, encountered fierce resistance from Democratic lawmakers as she made a determined effort to advance Sarah’s Law, a vital piece of legislation aimed at detaining illegal immigrants who commit violent crimes, in a bid to prevent harrowing tragedies like those of Sarah Root and Laken Riley.

Ernst’s proposal, Sarah’s Law, demands that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detain illegal immigrants charged with causing death or serious injury to others. The heart-wrenching case of Sarah Root, a 21-year-old from Iowa whose life was tragically cut short by a drunk driver who was in the country illegally, Edwin Mejia, serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for such legislation. Despite Mejia’s extensive record of driving offenses and evasion of court proceedings, ICE, citing Obama-era immigration enforcement guidelines, callously declined to detain him.

The recent devastating loss of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student from the University of Georgia, purportedly at the hands of another illegal immigrant, Jose Ibarra, has reignited fervent calls for the enactment of Sarah’s Law. Ibarra faces grave charges, including malice murder and felony murder. The refusal to detain individuals like Ibarra epitomizes the callous disregard for public safety that permeates the current immigration system, leaving innocent lives hanging in the balance.

Ernst’s impassioned plea for unanimous consent to propel Sarah’s Law forward was met with vehement opposition from Majority Whip Dick Durbin, a Democrat from Illinois. Durbin adamantly raised concerns, contending that the bill could inadvertently ensnare victims of trafficking or domestic abuse and trample upon immigrants’ due process rights.

Critics of Sarah’s Law, predominantly Democrats, contend that it might not have averted Riley’s tragic demise, given that Ibarra’s criminal record did not include prior incidents involving death or injury. However, Ernst steadfastly maintains that the prevailing immigration policies, including the notorious “catch and release” practice, perpetuate a climate of impunity, allowing potentially dangerous individuals to roam freely within the country’s borders.

Despite the setback in the Senate, the push for robust immigration enforcement and the enactment of measures like Sarah’s Law continues to encounter fierce opposition from Democratic quarters. The palpable divide underscores the deep-seated ideological chasm regarding immigration reform, intensifying the urgency for decisive action to safeguard the lives and well-being of American citizens.

What do you think of the Democrat Party trying to block “Sarah’s Law?” Leave your thoughts in the comments below. 

 

 

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Tricky Nikki Wins DC Swamp Primary

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Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s victory in the Washington, DC, Republican primary election may seem like a cause for celebration among the establishment elites and swamp dwellers, but it’s a grim reminder of the deep-seated betrayal of true conservative values.

In a district notorious for its entrenched establishment and lobbyist influence, Haley managed to eke out a victory over the true America First leader, former President Donald Trump. However, her margin of victory is overshadowed by the fact that it occurred in the heart of “the swamp,” where special interests reign supreme and the will of the American people takes a back seat to political expediency.

Haley’s win, fueled by lobbyist dollars and establishment backing, is a slap in the face to the grassroots movement that propelled Trump to victory in 2016 and continues to support him fervently. Despite her desperate attempts to portray herself as a viable alternative to Trump, Haley’s lackluster performance in her home state of South Carolina and her dismal showing in other primaries only serve to underscore her disconnect from the Republican base.

Her staggering expenditure of over $76 million in a futile bid to defeat Trump in multiple primary states reeks of desperation and underscores her willingness to prioritize personal ambition over principle. It’s abundantly clear that Haley’s allegiance lies not with the conservative values that define the Republican Party but with the entrenched interests of the Washington establishment.

While Haley may cling to the hope of staying competitive in the race, her delusions of grandeur are starkly at odds with reality. Despite her defiant rhetoric, the overwhelming support for Trump among Republican voters across the country leaves little room for doubt about the outcome of the primary race.

As Haley scrambles to salvage her floundering campaign, it’s evident that her aspirations of clinching the nomination are nothing more than a pipe dream. With a paltry 19 delegates to her name and a yawning chasm of over 1,000 delegates separating her from the nomination, Haley’s chances of success are as remote as her understanding of the true pulse of the Republican Party.

In the end, Nikki Haley’s victory in the DC primary may be a hollow triumph for the establishment elites, but it serves as a rallying cry for true conservatives to reject the siren song of political opportunism and stand firm in their support for the America First agenda championed by President Trump. The swamp may celebrate Haley’s win, but the heart and soul of the Republican Party remain firmly with Trump and the principles he represents.

Do you think Nikki Haley will win any more primaries? Leave your thoughts in the comments below. 

 

 

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